Taxes? Automation is the job killer.
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This debate of rich vs poor is exactly the begining of people feeling the effects of Automation. The jobs are gone. More jobs will soon be out the door. As companies fail and more streamline companies gobble up the failed companies customer base many companies will be doing more with less. Example take Blockbuster and Netflix. Blockbuster employed 60,000 workers in 2009 and Netflix employed 2,000. Guess who's in bankruptcy. Soon Netflix may employ even less as Internet ready TV's allow you to stream Netflix movies to your TV. How can taxes stop this? Do you tax Netflix more for passing on their savings for a better business model to their consumers? You can't balance this difference through the government.
What's missing is the effect this will have. As more and more companies follow these models we are headed towards a massive deflation and massive loss in jobs. Why? The deflation will be a result of lower prices because the consumer base cannot afford them. As the old manufacturing model saw lots of middle class earners with no skill sets the new business model will see no skill in the areas of engineering specifically Computers,Robotics, Electronics and electrical no job. Stagnate wages as we have already seen. All of this combined will equal less buyers worldwide. Less buyers means that profit projection will start to slowly not meet expectations year over year. Adjusted for inflation our better days financially have passed.
How our future looks in other areas depends on how we shape our future. If we continue to bicker back and forth about class and gap between the classes growing we will wake up one day and all be in peril. The world has changed. Our arguments over right or left overlook the path that is ahead of us. The gap between the rich and the poor will continue to grow no tax can prevent that. Unemployment will continue to grow nothing a politician will tell you he can do will change that. In fact we have reached the point actually that reducing government is actually bad for the economy. The government in all of its ineffencies keeps people working. Makes millionaires (Rick Scott rich off public housing and medicare, Rand Paul off medicare). Currently the government is supplementing personal money in the areas of housing with income based housing, healthcare, and food in the kitchen. This not only is productive for the people that live but the people who owned income housing, doctors, hospitals, and make the food in the kitchen. In one way the government has shielded these industries from the effects the economy has had on the consumer. Much in the way ATT shields Apple from its customer having to buy an IPhone or IPad. Take these provisions provided by the government away and allowing these companies to have to deal directly with the consumers will have a double dip effect. 1. The government jobs administering these programs will be closed. 2. The companies will be faced with massive losses in revenue. The plus side is these companies will have to lower prices to the amount that the consumer can directly afford. Automation is the true job killer not taxes. Taxes currently though is creating and keeping jobs. Are we ready to feel the full affects of automation by cutting programs? If not we are prolonging the inevitable. Inevitably globally their will be a massive deflation no government entity or world bank can save the world from. Make no mistake we will have to move in order to save the country to bringing down deficits. As GDP will begin to drop the ability get 14 trillion dollars in deficit will become harder. Economist continue to forecast growth. But Automation proves that we are headed towards deflation. That feeling you have in your gut about the economy and job's is real. Some tout green technology as the answer. Green technology will have the business model of google not McDonald's. A small amount of employees making billions in profit. This is not a viable option.
We have to stop arguing about taxes, level with the American people, and put a real plan to wind down the economy into play. To finalize Paul Otellini. CEO of Intel a great company leading the way in innovation. He was one of Obama's largest critics on the stimulus program. Saying "We still subsidize trains and agriculture -- industries of the 19th century. We should decide what's important to us going forward and make sure we've got the education system in place and the capital incentive system in place to do the investment here." People took it as if he was knocking Obama. What he was saying was Automation is the True Job Killer.
What's missing is the effect this will have. As more and more companies follow these models we are headed towards a massive deflation and massive loss in jobs. Why? The deflation will be a result of lower prices because the consumer base cannot afford them. As the old manufacturing model saw lots of middle class earners with no skill sets the new business model will see no skill in the areas of engineering specifically Computers,Robotics, Electronics and electrical no job. Stagnate wages as we have already seen. All of this combined will equal less buyers worldwide. Less buyers means that profit projection will start to slowly not meet expectations year over year. Adjusted for inflation our better days financially have passed.
How our future looks in other areas depends on how we shape our future. If we continue to bicker back and forth about class and gap between the classes growing we will wake up one day and all be in peril. The world has changed. Our arguments over right or left overlook the path that is ahead of us. The gap between the rich and the poor will continue to grow no tax can prevent that. Unemployment will continue to grow nothing a politician will tell you he can do will change that. In fact we have reached the point actually that reducing government is actually bad for the economy. The government in all of its ineffencies keeps people working. Makes millionaires (Rick Scott rich off public housing and medicare, Rand Paul off medicare). Currently the government is supplementing personal money in the areas of housing with income based housing, healthcare, and food in the kitchen. This not only is productive for the people that live but the people who owned income housing, doctors, hospitals, and make the food in the kitchen. In one way the government has shielded these industries from the effects the economy has had on the consumer. Much in the way ATT shields Apple from its customer having to buy an IPhone or IPad. Take these provisions provided by the government away and allowing these companies to have to deal directly with the consumers will have a double dip effect. 1. The government jobs administering these programs will be closed. 2. The companies will be faced with massive losses in revenue. The plus side is these companies will have to lower prices to the amount that the consumer can directly afford. Automation is the true job killer not taxes. Taxes currently though is creating and keeping jobs. Are we ready to feel the full affects of automation by cutting programs? If not we are prolonging the inevitable. Inevitably globally their will be a massive deflation no government entity or world bank can save the world from. Make no mistake we will have to move in order to save the country to bringing down deficits. As GDP will begin to drop the ability get 14 trillion dollars in deficit will become harder. Economist continue to forecast growth. But Automation proves that we are headed towards deflation. That feeling you have in your gut about the economy and job's is real. Some tout green technology as the answer. Green technology will have the business model of google not McDonald's. A small amount of employees making billions in profit. This is not a viable option.
We have to stop arguing about taxes, level with the American people, and put a real plan to wind down the economy into play. To finalize Paul Otellini. CEO of Intel a great company leading the way in innovation. He was one of Obama's largest critics on the stimulus program. Saying "We still subsidize trains and agriculture -- industries of the 19th century. We should decide what's important to us going forward and make sure we've got the education system in place and the capital incentive system in place to do the investment here." People took it as if he was knocking Obama. What he was saying was Automation is the True Job Killer.
Comments
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Very interesting read. I agree with much of what you write, however your fundamental argument is slightly off. Automation is the result of producers looking for a cheaper way to make a product without regard to the effects on the job market. CEOs and board members of corporations don't see people, all they see are numbers and the most important number is the bottom line. This pyramid like economic system is the problem. If you could make all automation in the production process disappear eventually these conglomerates would find a way to make a product with less labor. Capitalism is essentially anti-democratic and is the essential problem here. No one wants to say it but it's true. Capitalism may have had a longer run than communism but it's time is up and it's usefulness has diminished. So called "conservatives" like to argue that the government's meddling in business affairs is causing the market to act irregularly. In fact the opposite is the problem. Business interests have dominated government and have fashioned policies benefiting the top of the pyramid. A democratic economic system i.e. SOCIALISM will eventually appear once the economy reaches critical levels. Either this or the American political system will spiral into Fascism.
"A bird cannot fly with one wing, without social-economics democracy cannot exist" -
Great read.......it's very sad what the American economy is turning into, with so many out of work and even more just barely getting by. Meanwhile, states are running out of stimulus funds, so what do ya'll think is going to happen to tons of govt workers? You already know.....let's enjoy these days. It may look worse before we know it.
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http://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-layoffs-orange-county-2011-1#ixzz1C20wOBHm
The glory of automation is here!!!!!!!!
One Day After Securing A Huge Deal With China, Boeing Lays Off 1000 American Workers
Boeing just laid off 1000 workers in Southern California, according to the Orange County Register.
The move comes just a day after Boeing agreed to a $19 billion deal with China to produce 200 airplanes for the country.
The layoffs affect workers in the company's Long Beach, Anaheim, and Huntington Beach facilities. The bulk of the layoffs will occur in Long Beach, where 900 will lose their jobs.
The company has been consistently cutting jobs in Long Beach. It had 20,000 employees there in 1990 and now only has 7,000, according to the Long Beach Press Telegram. -
This is the future.
Working in the computer industry, i saw this coming. Our goals as humans was always to make our efforts to adapt easier. The good thing about sustainable (or green) energy is that it will bring cost down to the point where we can afford to keep our lights on while we are out of work. The only way we are going to survive at this point is to be able to reproduce things at no to low cost with little to no resources. Open Source is the natural human evolution that brings us together to build things at no cost which is where society will have to go in order to survive. This is why a social foundation is so important.
The basic necessities for life can be had on the cheap or freely with enough advances and changes in ideology away from the profit focus. The reason why communism was never sustainable is because resources were limited and could hardly affordable to reproduce. The only reason the rich exist is because of limited resources. If we can reproduce elements and manipulate them with little cost, then we will be OK. Even the non manual markets are up for grabs when it comes to computers and intelligence. A couple guys in a room can the work of hundreds with automated programs inputting, correlating, and calculating data.
Piracy online is a natural phenomenon to procure things that are easily reproducible. Actors and Musicians will have to do it for the luls. Youtube.
The service industry is becoming automated also. Soon, there will be robots bringing your meal to your room and making your beds.
Self Service.
http://www.selfserviceworld.com/article/178920/Hotels-waking-up-to-self-service
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a future packed with robot spiders? HELL YESFuriousOne wrote: »This is the future. -
Shall we bring back typewriters and get rid of tractors, etc, so everybody can go back to working with their hands?
Prices go down in real terms when productivity goes up. Automation is a major reason why productivity goes up. it's not ALWAYS the solution, only profit/loss can test that. But the idea automation is somehow a bad thing that people should be scared of is ridiculous.
As for the government workers, I can't wait until they are unemployed but I fear that day won't ever come. Millions working in anti-productive jobs is almost as big of a job killer as outrageous taxes. Those people would be doing less harm if they sat at home collecting 50k a year instead of pretending to work in a productivity capacity. At least that way, the office buildings, electricity, etc could be used productivity, and traffic would be less hectic driving to work.
Communism didn't work because it literally cannot work. Without a price system, you can't have an economy. Prices, and markets to determine them, are necessary to perform economic calculation. It's a far more fundamental problem than most realize. -
a future packed with robot spiders? HELL YES
Lol, i was trying to point out the do it yourself fabrication that will finally end many manufacturing jobs. I just went with the first video i saw. But i guess a future full of robotic spiders sounds like it could be worth seeing. -
Shall we bring back typewriters and get rid of tractors, etc, so everybody can go back to working with their hands?
Prices go down in real terms when productivity goes up. Automation is a major reason why productivity goes up. it's not ALWAYS the solution, only profit/loss can test that. But the idea automation is somehow a bad thing that people should be scared of is ridiculous.
As for the government workers, I can't wait until they are unemployed but I fear that day won't ever come. Millions working in anti-productive jobs is almost as big of a job killer as outrageous taxes. Those people would be doing less harm if they sat at home collecting 50k a year instead of pretending to work in a productivity capacity. At least that way, the office buildings, electricity, etc could be used productivity, and traffic would be less hectic driving to work.
Communism didn't work because it literally cannot work. Without a price system, you can't have an economy. Prices, and markets to determine them, are necessary to perform economic calculation. It's a far more fundamental problem than most realize.
Please explain why people shouldn't be nervous that they will become redundant in every industry from financial to service to manual.
That sounds like a fairly ignorant and general statement concerning government jobs as i'm sure many are very necessary. Can you tell me the industries that your talking about?
I was speaking about having equal standing because resources are actually unlimited. This is possible in the future with sustainable and automated technology. There is no need for capitalism if there's nothing to sell. -
in the Judge Dredd universe, almost everyone is unemployed by default because robots do all the work and ? just sit around bored shooting at each other
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i can't get sad about anything regarding the future if there's the promise of scores of robotic spidersFuriousOne wrote: »Lol, i was trying to point out the do it yourself fabrication that will finally end many manufacturing jobs. I just went with the first video i saw. But i guess a future full of robotic spiders sounds like it could be worth seeing. -
FuriousOne wrote:I was speaking about having equal standing because resources are actually unlimited. This is possible in the future with sustainable and automated technology. There is no need for capitalism if there's nothing to sell.
Everything is limited unless we return the garden of Eden. Resources are limited, labor is limited, and especially time is limited, even if nothing else was. Resources still have to be extracted, transported, transformed, before they are usable. That takes tons of capital, energy, and time. As long as we have to ration finite resources and time, there will be a need for markets and prices. Then even if when you have the resources, you still have to decide what to build with them, where, how, when, etc. Markets and prices help the pieces fit together smoothly. This is why disruptions to the market process cause major problems and distortions.
People should always be worried about their specific job, as any job can become redundant, but human laborers will not be. When the computer came along, people cried for Smith Corona, the typewriter company. When the internal combustion engine came along, people thought farming would collapse because of horseless tractors. Telephone companies no longer employ switchboard operators, but we have a whole wide industry now supporting cell phones, cell phone infrastructure, and even fun things like programmers that make video games for cell phones. Technology WILL not replace humans, but many specific people will make themselves irrelevant by not adapting. If the world is moving towards computers and you are still using a slide-rule, you will be unemployed, to use one historical example.FuriousOne wrote:Please explain why people shouldn't be nervous that they will become redundant in every industry from financial to service to manual.FuriousOne wrote:That sounds like a fairly ignorant and general statement concerning government jobs as i'm sure many are very necessary. Can you tell me the industries that your talking about?
As for the government jobs issue, even B.O. admitted last night the government has many redundant jobs with his salmon joke. And that's assuming you think salmon should be regulated in the first place(I do not). So many government jobs are there simply to purposefully interfere with the market because they grant some privilege to one political faction or another. Almost every government regulatory agency came into being to secure privilege for some industry, starting with the ICC and railroads over 100 years ago.
Take something this forum hears about often, police corruption, the drug war, etc. How many federal law enforcement agencies do we need? Especially if you see yourself as a potential victim of police abuse? The ATF for example spends most of its time butting heads with the Second Amendment, so you'd think it'd be Unconstitutional instead of costing us billions a year. Not only that, these federal employees then lobby for harsher drug/gun laws(which put many blacks in jail) because it pays them to do so. -
Everything is limited unless we return the garden of Eden. Resources are limited, labor is limited, and especially time is limited, even if nothing else was. Resources still have to be extracted, transported, transformed, before they are usable. That takes tons of capital, energy, and time. As long as we have to ration finite resources and time, there will be a need for markets and prices. Then even if when you have the resources, you still have to decide what to build with them, where, how, when, etc. Markets and prices help the pieces fit together smoothly. This is why disruptions to the market process cause major problems and distortions.
That's my point about resources being unlimited and reproducible at low to no cost. There will always be a place to create new tech but how many are needed to do so. A perfect example was giving with netflix. Another example is with online shoping eliminating the need for retail with less employees evolved in the process. The typewriter is not a good analogy because that was an evolution more then an elimination the same with farming. Typing did not die but Industries have already gobbled up small farms. Automation via technology would further reduce the need for actual farm labor. Jobs used to last generations and now they barely survive 10 years. With the many discoveries that we are making, we can create far greater things with far less input. The thing about pricing is that, you may not have as many people around to buy your products because they are jobless. On top of that, there is already 7 billion of us with far less jobs between us. With all of that said, we can never go back and many of these technology can be fruitful if we are able to create a more sustainable future.
http://www.impactlab.net/2010/04/17/fighting-to-keep-your-job-in-2020/People should always be worried about their specific job, as any job can become redundant, but human laborers will not be. When the computer came along, people cried for Smith Corona, the typewriter company. When the internal combustion engine came along, people thought farming would collapse because of horseless tractors. Telephone companies no longer employ switchboard operators, but we have a whole wide industry now supporting cell phones, cell phone infrastructure, and even fun things like programmers that make video games for cell phones. Technology WILL not replace humans, but many specific people will make themselves irrelevant by not adapting. If the world is moving towards computers and you are still using a slide-rule, you will be unemployed, to use one historical example.
Worrying about your job a relatively new phenomenon because people always expected industries to remain in existence for generation. Technology has progressed things to a rapid rate beyond our expectations. The computer analogy discounts the fact that less people are needed to operate it which is the point of this argument. Take the technology field for example. How many technicians are needed compared to the technicians in the past. Computers are being made to be disposable and replaceable with the focus on cheap micro machines and tablets. The centralization of servers (cloud) are not upgrading jobs, they are eliminating them because fewer companies are doing the job of managing data with less people.As for the government jobs issue, even B.O. admitted last night the government has many redundant jobs with his salmon joke. And that's assuming you think salmon should be regulated in the first place(I do not). So many government jobs are there simply to purposefully interfere with the market because they grant some privilege to one political faction or another. Almost every government regulatory agency came into being to secure privilege for some industry, starting with the ICC and railroads over 100 years ago.
The railroads are a great alternative for transit but obviously this country is built around cars now. The only reason the railroad isn't used more countrywide is because the infrastructure doesn't connect enough states and it hasn't upgraded in a long time. I think high speed can become a great resource coupled with electric car rentals at the stations. I don't own a car living in NYC because the transportation is very effective. Industries are guilty of overfishing so i think regulation works if we are actually using it. The problem is, lobbyist and payoffs keep regulators from doing their job. A log of people would do a lot of despicable things giving the chance with little to no regulation as evident by our past. People are greedy.Take something this forum hears about often, police corruption, the drug war, etc. How many federal law enforcement agencies do we need? Especially if you see yourself as a potential victim of police abuse? The ATF for example spends most of its time butting heads with the Second Amendment, so you'd think it'd be Unconstitutional instead of costing us billions a year. Not only that, these federal employees then lobby for harsher drug/gun laws(which put many blacks in jail) because it pays them to do so.
I think most if not all can agree that the drug war is a true negative. Weed was made illegal under racial pretenses and ? was the drug of choice while ? destroyed communities. There has to be a better alternative. The main issue is that the United States has transformed into a drug culture. IDK what to do about that other to to take away the fad of it being illegal. That doesn't stop alcoholics from being reckless so really it's not a simple argument.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew7ZZWP9J78
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_-PxqtrwK8
