The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About to Change Forever
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2stepz_ahead
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http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-way-humans-get-electricity-is-about-to-change-forever/ar-AAbZhP2
The renewable-energy boom is here. Trillions of dollars will be invested over the next 25 years, driving some of the most profound changes yet in how humans get their electricity. That's according to a new forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance that plots out global power markets to 2040.
Here are six massive shifts coming soon to power markets near you:
1. Solar Prices Keep Crashing
The price of solar power will continue to fall, until it becomes the cheapest form of power in a rapidly expanding number of national markets. By 2026, utility-scale solar will be competitive for the majority of the world, according to BNEF. The lifetime cost of a photovoltaic solar-power plant will drop by almost half over the next 25 years, even as the prices of fossil fuels creep higher.
Solar power will eventually get so cheap that it will outcompete new fossil-fuel plants and even start to supplant some existing coal and gas plants, potentially stranding billions in fossil-fuel infrastructure. The industrial age was built on coal. The next 25 years will be the end of its dominance.
2. Solar Billions Become Solar Trillions
With solar power so cheap, investments will surge. Expect $3.7 trillion in solar investments between now and 2040, according to BNEF. Solar alone will account for more than a third of new power capacity worldwide. Here's how that looks on a chart, with solar appropriately dressed in yellow and fossil fuels in pernicious gray:
3. The Revolution Will Be Decentralized
The biggest solar revolution will take place on rooftops. High electricity prices and cheap residential battery storage will make small-scale rooftop solar ever more attractive, driving a 17-fold increase in installations. By 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than electricity from the grid in every major economy, and almost 13 percent of electricity worldwide will be generated from small-scale solar systems.
4. Global Demand Slows
Yes, the world is inundated with mobile phones, flat screen TVs, and air conditioners. But growth in demand for electricity is slowing. The reason: efficiency. To cram huge amounts of processing power into pocket-sized gadgets, engineers have had to focus on how to keep those gadgets from overheating. That's meant huge advances in energy efficiency. Switching to an LED light bulb, for example, can reduce electricity consumption by more than 80 percent.
So even as people rise from poverty to middle class faster than ever, BNEF predicts that global electricity consumption will remain relatively flat. In the next 25 years, global demand will grow about 1.8 percent a year, compared with 3 percent a year from 1990 to 2012. In wealthy OECD countries, power demand will actually decline.
5. Natural Gas Burns Briefly
Natural gas won't become the oft-idealized "bridge fuel" that transitions the world from coal to renewable energy, according to BNEF. The U.S. fracking boom will help bring global prices down some, but few countries outside the U.S. will replace coal plants with natural gas. Instead, developing countries will often opt for some combination of coal, gas, and renewables.
Even in the fracking-rich U.S., wind power will be cheaper than building new gas plants by 2023, and utility-scale solar will be cheaper than gas by 2036.
Fossil fuels aren't going to suddenly disappear. They'll retain a 44 percent share of total electricity generation in 2040 (down from two thirds today), much of which will come from legacy plants that are cheaper to run than shut down. Developing countries will be responsible for 99 percent of new coal plants and 86 percent of new gas-fired plants between now and 2040, according to BNEF. Coal is clearly on its way out, but in developing countries that need to add capacity quickly, coal- power additions will be roughly equivalent to utility-scale solar.
6. The Climate Is Still Screwed
The shift to renewables is happening shockingly fast, but not fast enough to prevent perilous levels of global warming.
About $8 trillion, or two thirds of the world's spending on new power capacity over the next 25 years, will go toward renewables. Still, without additional policy action by governments, global carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector will continue to rise until 2029 and will remain 13 percent higher than today's pollution levels in 2040.
That's not enough to prevent the surface of the Earth from heating more than 2 degrees Celsius, according to BNEF. That's considered the point-of-no-return for some worst consequences of climate change.
The report assumes there will be no further policies supporting renewable energy from 2018 onward. The EPA's Clean Power Plan and any unforeseen climate agreements could change the forecast. The share of total generation from renewables will be higher, at 46 percent. The world's power capacity mix will go from two-thirds fossil fuels today to 56 percent zero emissions, according to BNEF.
The renewable-energy boom is here. Trillions of dollars will be invested over the next 25 years, driving some of the most profound changes yet in how humans get their electricity. That's according to a new forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance that plots out global power markets to 2040.
Here are six massive shifts coming soon to power markets near you:
1. Solar Prices Keep Crashing
The price of solar power will continue to fall, until it becomes the cheapest form of power in a rapidly expanding number of national markets. By 2026, utility-scale solar will be competitive for the majority of the world, according to BNEF. The lifetime cost of a photovoltaic solar-power plant will drop by almost half over the next 25 years, even as the prices of fossil fuels creep higher.
Solar power will eventually get so cheap that it will outcompete new fossil-fuel plants and even start to supplant some existing coal and gas plants, potentially stranding billions in fossil-fuel infrastructure. The industrial age was built on coal. The next 25 years will be the end of its dominance.
2. Solar Billions Become Solar Trillions
With solar power so cheap, investments will surge. Expect $3.7 trillion in solar investments between now and 2040, according to BNEF. Solar alone will account for more than a third of new power capacity worldwide. Here's how that looks on a chart, with solar appropriately dressed in yellow and fossil fuels in pernicious gray:
3. The Revolution Will Be Decentralized
The biggest solar revolution will take place on rooftops. High electricity prices and cheap residential battery storage will make small-scale rooftop solar ever more attractive, driving a 17-fold increase in installations. By 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than electricity from the grid in every major economy, and almost 13 percent of electricity worldwide will be generated from small-scale solar systems.
4. Global Demand Slows
Yes, the world is inundated with mobile phones, flat screen TVs, and air conditioners. But growth in demand for electricity is slowing. The reason: efficiency. To cram huge amounts of processing power into pocket-sized gadgets, engineers have had to focus on how to keep those gadgets from overheating. That's meant huge advances in energy efficiency. Switching to an LED light bulb, for example, can reduce electricity consumption by more than 80 percent.
So even as people rise from poverty to middle class faster than ever, BNEF predicts that global electricity consumption will remain relatively flat. In the next 25 years, global demand will grow about 1.8 percent a year, compared with 3 percent a year from 1990 to 2012. In wealthy OECD countries, power demand will actually decline.
5. Natural Gas Burns Briefly
Natural gas won't become the oft-idealized "bridge fuel" that transitions the world from coal to renewable energy, according to BNEF. The U.S. fracking boom will help bring global prices down some, but few countries outside the U.S. will replace coal plants with natural gas. Instead, developing countries will often opt for some combination of coal, gas, and renewables.
Even in the fracking-rich U.S., wind power will be cheaper than building new gas plants by 2023, and utility-scale solar will be cheaper than gas by 2036.
Fossil fuels aren't going to suddenly disappear. They'll retain a 44 percent share of total electricity generation in 2040 (down from two thirds today), much of which will come from legacy plants that are cheaper to run than shut down. Developing countries will be responsible for 99 percent of new coal plants and 86 percent of new gas-fired plants between now and 2040, according to BNEF. Coal is clearly on its way out, but in developing countries that need to add capacity quickly, coal- power additions will be roughly equivalent to utility-scale solar.
6. The Climate Is Still Screwed
The shift to renewables is happening shockingly fast, but not fast enough to prevent perilous levels of global warming.
About $8 trillion, or two thirds of the world's spending on new power capacity over the next 25 years, will go toward renewables. Still, without additional policy action by governments, global carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector will continue to rise until 2029 and will remain 13 percent higher than today's pollution levels in 2040.
That's not enough to prevent the surface of the Earth from heating more than 2 degrees Celsius, according to BNEF. That's considered the point-of-no-return for some worst consequences of climate change.
The report assumes there will be no further policies supporting renewable energy from 2018 onward. The EPA's Clean Power Plan and any unforeseen climate agreements could change the forecast. The share of total generation from renewables will be higher, at 46 percent. The world's power capacity mix will go from two-thirds fossil fuels today to 56 percent zero emissions, according to BNEF.
Comments
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As long as no volcanoes or major bombs/explosions go off that block out the sun, this is the future. I've always wondered why solar power wasn't a bigger industry
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32DaysOfInfiniti wrote: »As long as no volcanoes or major bombs/explosions go off that block out the sun, this is the future. I've always wondered why solar power wasn't a bigger industry
not profitable for certain people
not controllable for certain people
highly discouraged by the high cost but low capacity of power storage.
govts make complete renewable energy almost impossible to import to certain countries and create new regulations to stay ahead of the game.
new storage technologies will be hard to get but is available.
you have to get a piece here and and piece there and put it together but keep it under wraps.
its out there.... -
The gas companies have a stranglehold on our societies. I know of a couple that are having a new home ( make that mansion) built as I type. The wife was dishing to me all the new features and color schemes and stuff. They are including all kinds of green elements that include solar powered this and that, even some type of water recirculation feature that generates some kind of power. But what blew my mind was that because of some kind of building code they are REQUIRED by law to install gas lines even though they don't plan on ever using natural gas. And that's in a brand new structure expected to stand for the next hundred years. The gas companies have it on lock.
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babelipsss wrote: »The gas companies have a stranglehold on our societies. I know of a couple that are having a new home ( make that mansion) built as I type. The wife was dishing to me all the new features and color schemes and stuff. They are including all kinds of green elements that include solar powered this and that, even some type of water recirculation feature that generates some kind of power. But what blew my mind was that because of some kind of building code they are REQUIRED by law to install gas lines even though they don't plan on ever using natural gas. And that's in a brand new structure expected to stand for the next hundred years. The gas companies have it on lock.
that water recirculation can also be used to cool the house further bringing down power costs by not using air conditioning. or it can used to help heat the house......
it can also be used to help power new hydrocells which is going to get cheaper because they are/will no longer use platinum a but a membrane made of graphene(my lastest investment).
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I read a story. I think this was back when I was in VA, but the story was dominion power was charging folks for basically switching to solar. How crazy is that? The reason it isn't as big as it should be is because of old coal money and the sneaky crackas who stand to lose billions. Can't wait till the %99 wake up.
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The electric Co, rps, out here in AZ ...... solar is big business out here cause we get more sun than a mug ..... But this co bought out one of the biggest solar panel companies out here and started renting/ lease out solar systems. Making it really no different than having a electric bill smh
